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Optimal rainfall threshold for monsoon rice production in India varies across space and time
AgricultureCommunications Earth & Environment

Optimal rainfall threshold for monsoon rice production in India varies across space and time

A. Maiti, M. K. Hasan, et al.

Discover how climate change affects rice yield in India in a groundbreaking study by a team of international experts. With analysis spanning 27 years, the research reveals the critical role of monsoon rainfall—showing yields can decline by over 33% with excessive rain. Join the conversation by the authors as they uncover these vital insights!... show more
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Abstract
Climate change affects Indian agriculture, which depends heavily on the spatiotemporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. Despite the nonlinear relationship between crop yield and rainfall, little is known about the optimal rainfall threshold, particularly for monsoon rice. Here, we investigate the responses of rice yield to monsoon rainfall in India by analyzing historical rice production statistics and climate data from 1990 to 2017. Results show that excessive and deficit rainfall reduces rice yield by 33.7% and 19%, respectively. The overall optimal rainfall threshold nationwide is 1621 ± 34 mm beyond which rice yield declines by 6.4 kg per hectare per 100 mm of rainfall, while the identifiable thresholds vary spatially across 14 states. The temporal variations in rice yield are influenced by rainfall anomalies featured by El Niño-Southern Oscillation events.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Jun 06, 2024
Authors
Arabinda Maiti, Md Kamrul Hasan, Srikanta Sannigrahi, Somnath Bar, Suman Chakraborti, Shanti Shwarup Mahto, Sumanta Chatterjee, Suvamoy Pramanik, Francesco Pilla, Jeremy Auerbach, Oliver Sonnentag, Conghe Song, Qi Zhang
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01414-7
Tags
climate changeIndian agriculturerice yieldmonsoon rainfallEl Niño-Southern Oscillationhistorical data
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