Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control

This paper investigates optimal strategies for using time-limited interventions to reduce peak prevalence during a novel disease outbreak using the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The authors derive the theoretically optimal intervention strategy and demonstrate that simpler, easier-to-implement strategies can achieve near-optimal results. However, they find that neither optimal nor near-optimal strategies are robust to implementation errors; small timing errors lead to significant increases in peak prevalence. The study emphasizes the need for strong, early, and ideally sustained interventions for robust disease control.

Dylan H. Morris, Fernando W. Rossine, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon A. Levin