This paper investigates optimal strategies for using time-limited interventions to reduce peak prevalence during a novel disease outbreak using the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The authors derive the theoretically optimal intervention strategy and demonstrate that simpler, easier-to-implement strategies can achieve near-optimal results. However, they find that neither optimal nor near-optimal strategies are robust to implementation errors; small timing errors lead to significant increases in peak prevalence. The study emphasizes the need for strong, early, and ideally sustained interventions for robust disease control.
Publisher
Communications Physics
Published On
Apr 20, 2021
Authors
Dylan H. Morris, Fernando W. Rossine, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon A. Levin
Tags
disease outbreak
SIR model
intervention strategies
peak prevalence
disease control
implementation errors
public health
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