New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected

The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet, leading to unprecedented environmental changes. The hydrological cycle is intensifying, with increased evaporation and precipitation. CMIP6 models project more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss than CMIP5, resulting in larger and faster hydrological changes. Arctic precipitation increases more rapidly in CMIP6 due to greater global warming, poleward moisture transport, Arctic amplification, sea-ice loss, and increased precipitation sensitivity to Arctic warming. The transition to a rain-dominated Arctic in summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier than previously thought, potentially under 1.5°C of global warming, with significant climatic, ecosystem, and socio-economic impacts.

Michelle R. McCrystall, Julienne Stroeve, Mark Serreze, Bruce C. Forbes, James A. Screen