Earth Sciences

Near-term projection of Amazon rainfall dominated by phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Y. Liu, W. Cai, et al.

Discover the intriguing dynamics of the Amazon basin's prolonged drought during the 2010s, as revealed by groundbreaking research. This study by Yi Liu, Wenju Cai, Yu Zhang, Xiaopei Lin, and Ziguang Li uncovers the pivotal role of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in shaping rainfall projections and climate impacts in the region.

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Playback language: English

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Abstract

The Amazon basin experienced a prolonged drought in the 2010s, impacting ecosystems and society. This study uses large ensemble simulations to determine if this was due to external forcing or internal variability, and whether it will continue. Results show a negative-to-positive phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) explains ~45% of the observed decadal drought, significantly more than external forcing (~12%). Constraining future IPO phase transition reduces uncertainty in near-term (pre-2040) Amazon rainfall projection. The IPO plays a crucial role in the post-2010 drying and near-term rainfall projection.

Publisher

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Published On

Feb 26, 2024

Authors

Yi Liu, Wenju Cai, Yu Zhang, Xiaopei Lin, Ziguang Li

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