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Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

Earth Sciences

Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

S. W. Lubis, Z. Chen, et al.

This study by Sandro W. Lubis, Ziming Chen, Jian Lu, Samson Hagos, Chuan-Chieh Chang, and L. Ruby Leung uncovers how the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation significantly heightens the risk of heat extremes and wildfires in the Pacific Northwest. With a striking increase of 50-120% during specific BSISO phases, their findings promise to enhance predictions for these dangerous weather events.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study investigates the influence of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on heat extremes and wildfire risks in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). The research reveals that during BSISO phases 6-7, the likelihood of heat extremes and fire-conducive weather conditions in the PNW increases significantly (by ~50-120%). This is primarily attributed to enhanced diabatic heating over the tropical central-to-eastern North Pacific, generating a downstream wave train that results in a high-pressure system over the PNW. This system promotes surface warming through increased surface radiative heating and enhanced adiabatic warming. The findings suggest a pathway for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions of heatwaves and wildfire risks in the PNW by better representing BSISO heating in climate models.
Publisher
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published On
Jul 23, 2024
Authors
Sandro W. Lubis, Ziming Chen, Jian Lu, Samson Hagos, Chuan-Chieh Chang, L. Ruby Leung
Tags
boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation
heat extremes
wildfire risks
Pacific Northwest
climate models
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