More support for hydrogen export than its domestic application in Australia

The global push towards decarbonization has spurred significant interest in green hydrogen as a clean energy source. Australia, with its abundant renewable resources, aims to become a major hydrogen exporter. However, the development of a robust domestic hydrogen industry is crucial for long-term viability and export capacity. This study focuses on understanding public acceptance of hydrogen, specifically differentiating between support for domestic use and export. Existing research has indicated generally high societal acceptance of hydrogen for decarbonization but lacks detailed information on the specific applications that citizens support. Filling this gap is vital because public acceptance is a crucial factor influencing the successful development and deployment of hydrogen technologies, alongside resource availability, infrastructure, and policy considerations. The transition to a hydrogen-based economy faces several hurdles. Domestically, existing energy infrastructure relies heavily on fossil fuels, making immediate widespread hydrogen adoption challenging. Though hydrogen is increasingly blended into gas pipelines, direct household access remains limited. Conversely, Australia's ambition to become a leading hydrogen exporter is driven by the potential to leverage its renewable energy resources for green hydrogen production. The decreasing cost of renewable energy makes green hydrogen increasingly competitive, attracting international interest from countries like Korea, Japan, and Germany. Despite the economic potential, societal acceptance remains a critical factor for both domestic and export applications, potentially influenced by perceptions of environmental impact and the perceived fairness of project implementation (NIMBY/NIABY concerns). Existing studies have primarily focused on the broader acceptance of renewable energy, including less comprehensive investigations into the public perception of hydrogen. Therefore, this study directly addresses the knowledge gap concerning public perception of hydrogen's domestic and export applications in Australia, which has implications for effective policy development and industry implementation.

Previous research has consistently demonstrated a general acceptance of clean energy technologies, including hydrogen. However, much of the existing literature focuses on renewable energy sources like solar and wind, offering limited insights into the specific nuances of public perception regarding hydrogen. Studies examining social acceptance have often considered the political, economic, and environmental dimensions. While acknowledging the overall positive sentiment toward clean energy, these studies also highlight significant challenges related to the siting of renewable energy infrastructure (NIMBY/NIABY effects). These 'Not In My Backyard' or 'Not In Anyone's Backyard' sentiments stem from concerns about potential disruptions to daily life, visual impacts, and perceived threats to local communities. The literature emphasizes the critical role of information dissemination and communication strategies in shaping public opinion and fostering active engagement. Furthermore, the perception of fairness and equitable distribution of benefits from renewable energy projects significantly influences acceptance levels. Higher environmental awareness correlates positively with more favorable perceptions of renewable energy and associated hydrogen projects. While studies have shown general Australian support for hydrogen technology, there was a notable absence of research comparing public attitudes toward hydrogen’s domestic use versus its role in the export market. This study directly addresses this gap by investigating this crucial distinction.

This study utilizes data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Australia in 2021 to understand public attitudes toward hydrogen. The survey employed a non-probabilistic sampling method, targeting a nationally representative sample through criteria-based respondent selection (age, gender, geography). Of 11,089 survey initiations, 3020 fully completed the survey after filtering for incomplete responses and consistency checks. The study used a quasi-experimental design with a pre- and post-survey approach. Respondents were randomly divided into two groups: a 'Domestic' group and an 'Export' group. Before the treatment, respondents rated their baseline support for hydrogen using a Likert scale (1-7, very unsupportive to very supportive). They also assessed their subjective knowledge about hydrogen. The treatment consisted of a brief information package: a short video (produced by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency) explaining hydrogen production and its applications, followed by images and text specific to either domestic or export uses. Following the information exposure, respondents completed a post-survey, rerating their support for hydrogen and answering additional stream-specific and demographic questions (climate change beliefs, environmental identity, trust in groups, general attitudes toward hydrogen). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was employed to estimate the effect of the information package (treatment) on support for hydrogen. A respondent-fixed effect model was used to control for individual-level confounding factors. To account for the ordinal nature of the Likert scale, the results were complemented with ordered logit regression. A balance test confirmed the comparability of the 'Domestic' and 'Export' groups at baseline. Further analysis examined the heterogeneous treatment effects across various respondent characteristics (e.g., gas connection, solar PV ownership, geographic location, technological innovation adoption behavior).

The information treatment significantly increased societal acceptance of hydrogen. Compared to the baseline, the treatment increased support by approximately 10% on average. Ordered logit regression revealed a 2.3-fold increase in the probability of respondents shifting to a higher level of support after receiving the information. The results remained robust when controlling for individual-level confounding factors using respondent fixed effects. The study found a significant difference between the impact of the information package on support for domestic versus export applications. Support for hydrogen export increased significantly more than support for domestic use (11% vs. 9%). A balance test demonstrated the comparability of the two groups at the outset. Heterogeneous treatment effects revealed that the impact of the information package varied across different respondent groups. For example, households with solar PV systems exhibited a smaller increase in overall support compared to households without PV. Respondents in regional areas showed greater sensitivity to the information package than those in metropolitan areas, with those identifying as fast followers of technological innovation also being more positively influenced. These variations in support highlight the importance of considering specific contexts and characteristics when designing and implementing public communication and engagement strategies.

The study's findings directly address the research question by demonstrating a significant positive impact of the information package on public support for hydrogen, but notably a more pronounced effect on support for export applications compared to domestic ones. The difference in the magnitude of the effect across domestic versus export frames points towards nuanced considerations in public communication strategies. It suggests that framing the discussion around global decarbonization efforts and Australia’s potential economic benefits from hydrogen exports may be particularly effective in garnering support. The heterogeneity of the treatment effects underscores the importance of tailoring communication efforts to specific audiences, considering their existing knowledge, beliefs, and socio-economic contexts. The results have significant implications for policymakers seeking to promote the development of a sustainable hydrogen economy in Australia. The greater increase in support for hydrogen export highlights the considerable public backing for Australia’s ambitions to become a key player in the global green hydrogen market. However, the results also suggest that greater attention should be focused on fostering domestic acceptance. This necessitates well-designed communication strategies that effectively address concerns and highlight the economic and environmental benefits associated with domestic hydrogen adoption.

This study demonstrates that a brief, multi-modal information package significantly increases public support for hydrogen in Australia. However, the framing of the information matters, with stronger support evident for export applications compared to domestic ones. The effect of the information package also varies across respondent characteristics and geographic locations. These findings have significant implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders seeking to promote the development and implementation of hydrogen technologies in Australia. Future research could explore more in-depth qualitative analyses to further understand the underlying reasons for these variations in support and refine communication strategies accordingly.

The study relies on self-reported data from a non-probabilistic sample, potentially introducing biases. The relatively short time frame between the pre- and post-surveys might limit the observation of long-term attitudinal changes. The study focuses solely on Australia, limiting its generalizability to other contexts. Further research using alternative methodologies and larger, representative samples, could enhance the generalizability of these findings.