Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years

A better understanding of the relative roles of internal climate variability and external contributions, from both natural (solar, volcanic) and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is important to better project future hydrologic changes. Changes in the evaporative demand play a central role in this context, particularly in tropical areas characterized by high precipitation seasonality, such as the tropical savannah and semi-desertic biomes. Here we present a set of geochemical proxies in speleothems from a well-ventilated cave located in central-eastern Brazil which shows that the evaporative demand is no longer being met by precipitation, leading to a hydrological deficit. A marked change in the hydrologic balance in central-eastern Brazil, caused by a severe warming trend, can be identified, starting in the 1970s. Our findings show that the current aridity has no analog over the last 720 years. A detection and attribution study indicates that this trend is mostly driven by anthropogenic forcing and cannot be explained by natural factors alone. These results reinforce the premise of a severe long-term drought in the subtropics of eastern South America that will likely be further exacerbated in the future given its apparent connection to increased greenhouse gas emissions.

Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis, Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque, Francisco William Cruz, Juan Pablo Bernal, Mathias Vuille, Ernesto Tejedor, Matheus Simões Santos, Marília Harumi Shimizu, Angela Ampuero, Wenjing Du, Gilvan Sampaio, Hamilton dos Reis Sales, José Leandro Campos, Mary Toshie Kayano, James Apaèstegui, Roger R. Fu, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards, Victor Chavez Mayta, Danielle da Silva Francischini, Marco Aurélio Zezzi Arruda, Valdir Felipe Novello