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Modelling and predicting the Consumer Price Index in Saudi Arabia

Economics

Modelling and predicting the Consumer Price Index in Saudi Arabia

A. Mahgoub and T. Alam

Explore the intriguing findings of a study conducted by Ayman Mahgoub and Teg Alam that delves into the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Saudi Arabia from 2013 to 2020. Using an advanced SARMA model, this research highlights significant inflation trends and offers critical insights for policymakers tackling economic challenges.

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~3 min • Beginner • English
Abstract
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a vital gauge of economic performance, reflecting fluctuations in the costs of goods and services. Using monthly CPI data for Saudi Arabia from 2013 to 2020, structured as a time series, the study identifies the SARMA (0,1,0) (12,0,12) model as the most suitable for capturing seasonality and autocorrelation. The model requires no additional components for outliers, its residuals satisfy least squares assumptions, and the fitted model is stable. Forecasts for June 2020–June 2021 indicate a steady increase in CPI, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures. The results support the SARMA model as a practical tool for policymakers to anticipate CPI dynamics and inform inflation-related policies.
Publisher
Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development
Published On
Sep 11, 2024
Authors
Ayman Mahgoub, Teg Alam
Tags
Consumer Price Index
Saudi Arabia
inflation
SARMA model
economic analysis
time series
forecasting

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