Location and Type of Crimes in The Philippines: Insights for Crime Prevention and Management

The study addresses how types of index crimes are associated with specific locations across the Philippines and how these associations and crime incidences changed before and during COVID-19 lockdowns. Against the backdrop of the Duterte administration’s emphasis on crime reduction and increased police visibility (including salary adjustments to uniformed personnel), crime remains prevalent and varies by location and type. Understanding spatial patterns is critical for targeted crime prevention and management by law enforcement and local governments. The research aims to analyze associations between location and crime type, identify predominant index crimes across regions before and during the pandemic, and provide insights to guide regional planning and police strategies.

Crime rates vary globally, with high indices in some countries and lower rates in others. Prior research highlights socioeconomic correlates of crime, including poverty, unemployment, and income inequality. In the Philippines—one of the most populous nations in Southeast Asia—crime reduction has coincided with declines in poverty and government initiatives integrating crime prevention into national development plans and efforts to strengthen the criminal justice system. The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped crime trends worldwide: some violent crimes (e.g., domestic violence) increased, while property crimes (e.g., burglary, robbery) often decreased amid mobility restrictions. Despite numerous pandemic-era crime studies, there is limited global research specifically examining associations between location and types of index crimes, underscoring the need for the present analysis in the Philippine context.

Design: Retrospective quantitative analysis using secondary data. Data source: Philippine Statistics Authority Annual Statistical Yearbook (PSA-ASY), Chapter 17 (Public Order, Safety and Justice Statistics), covering volumes of index crimes from 2016 to 2020. Index crimes were grouped into two categories: (1) crimes against persons (murder, homicide, rape, physical injury) and (2) crimes against property (theft, robbery, carnapping, cattle rustling). Data were disaggregated by administrative regions (e.g., NCR, CAR, Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, etc.). Statistical analysis: Categorical variables summarized as counts and percentages. Associations between location and crime type were tested using chi-square tests. Correlation/dot plots of chi-square residuals were used to visualize and interpret patterns of association, where dot size and color indicate magnitude and direction (large dark blue = strong positive association; large dark red = strong negative association). Annual rate-of-change bar charts were used for rape incidence. Two-tailed p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Analyses were performed in R (v4.1.3).

• National trends (2016–2020): Steady annual declines in index crimes. Crimes against persons decreased annually by approximately 15% to 28%; crimes against property decreased by at least 11% and up to 49%; overall index crimes fell by about 16% to 40% annually. In 2020, amid lockdowns, crimes against property declined by around 49% while crimes against persons declined by about 28%.
• Regional distribution: From 2016 to 2020, the National Capital Region accounted for roughly 16%–18% of index crimes, followed by Central Visayas (11%–15%) and Western Visayas (6%–10%). BARMM, CAR, Caraga, and MIMAROPA reported relatively low incidence. Average annual decline rates across regions ranged from about 12% to as much as 39% (with some regions reaching ≥30%). Mobility restrictions during the pandemic contributed to sharper declines in 2020, with 16 regions reaching at least 30% annual decline.
• Association between location and crime type: Significant associations were found pre-pandemic (2016–2019, all p<0.001) and during 2020, indicating crime types are not randomly distributed across locations. • Pre-pandemic associations: Murder—BARMM (strong), Caraga, CALABARZON, Davao Region; Homicide—SOCCSKSARGEN; Physical injury—Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley; Rape—Ilocos, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA; Robbery—NCR; Theft—NCR and Central Visayas; Carnapping—Central Luzon, CALABARZON, SOCCSKSARGEN; Cattle rustling—Ilocos. • During pandemic (2020): Patterns largely similar for murder, homicide, robbery, physical injury, theft, carnapping, cattle rustling. Rape associations expanded to more regions—CAR, Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Davao, and Caraga—indicating broader regional prominence.
• Rape trends: Average rate-of-change analyses showed increases in rape incidence during 2016–2020 in multiple regions (e.g., CAR, Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Davao, and Caraga), while declines were observed in BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, Central Visayas, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, and NCR.

The findings demonstrate that index crime incidence in the Philippines declined steadily from 2016 to 2020, reflecting the potential impact of government policies and increased police visibility. The pandemic and associated mobility restrictions further reduced opportunities for many crimes, contributing to sharp declines in 2020. The statistically significant associations between crime type and location both before and during the pandemic confirm that crime patterns are geographically patterned rather than random, supporting the need for location-specific prevention and resource allocation. Importantly, rape became prominent across many more regions during the pandemic, aligning with global reports of increased sexual and domestic violence under lockdown conditions. These insights directly inform regional and local planning by identifying crime types that require prioritization in specific areas and by underscoring the importance of tailored interventions, especially for sexual violence, and sustained police presence in densely populated regions.

Government efforts against criminality correspond with a steady decline in index crimes in the Philippines, with the COVID-19 pandemic further contributing to reduced incidence—particularly for property crimes. Because crime incidence is higher in densely populated areas and crime type is associated with location, increased police presence in high-density regions and targeted, location-specific prevention strategies are recommended. Rape emerged as a significant issue in many regions during the pandemic, indicating the need for specific interventions addressing sexual violence during community lockdowns. The results can guide local governments in crafting crime prevention and management programs and highlight priorities by region.

The study relies on secondary, aggregated regional data from the PSA-ASY for 2016–2020 and focuses on index crimes, limiting granularity. A precinct-level analysis was not conducted and is recommended for future research to enable closer surveillance insights.