Effective crime prevention and management require understanding crime trends and their geographic distribution. The Philippine government, under the Duterte administration, prioritized crime reduction through initiatives like the 'War-on-Drugs' and salary increases for uniformed personnel to enhance police visibility. While these efforts yielded improvements in crime solution efficiency, index crimes persist. This study aims to analyze the association between crime location and type in the Philippines and assess the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns. Specifically, it investigates the predominant index crimes before and during the pandemic across different regions, providing insights for localized crime prevention strategies. The Philippines' archipelagic nature necessitates region-specific crime analysis to support effective police enforcement and inform regional government planning.

Global crime rates vary significantly, influenced by factors like poverty, unemployment, and income inequality. While some countries boast low crime rates, others, including the Philippines, face considerable challenges. The Philippines, a highly populated nation, has seen a significant reduction in poverty and crime rates since 2015, attributed partly to government anti-poverty campaigns. Crime prevention is integrated into the country's economic development plans, highlighting the importance of a strong criminal justice system. The COVID-19 pandemic globally altered crime trends, with some studies reporting increases in domestic violence while others showed decreases in crimes like burglary and robbery due to lockdowns. However, research on the association between crime location and type remains limited, particularly concerning the pandemic's impact.

This retrospective quantitative study used data from the Philippine Statistics Authority's Annual Statistical Yearbook (PSA-ASY), specifically Chapter 17 on Public Order, Safety, and Justice Statistics. The dataset included index crime volumes from 2016 to 2020, categorized as crimes against persons (murder, homicide, rape, physical injury) and crimes against property (theft, robbery, car-napping, cattle rustling). Data were available for different administrative regions in the Philippines. The study employed a chi-square test and correlation plots of chi-square residuals to analyze associations between location and crime type. Correlation plots (dot plots) visualized the patterns of these associations, with dot size and color representing the magnitude and direction of the relationship. Bar charts displayed annual rape incidence changes. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05, using R Programming Language version 4.1.3 for analysis.

Analysis of index crime volumes from 2016 to 2020 revealed a steady annual decline (15%-28% for crimes against persons, 11%-49% for crimes against property, and 16%-40% overall). This decline suggests the effectiveness of government anti-criminality efforts. The 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns further contributed to this decrease, with a 49% drop in crimes against property and a 28% drop in crimes against persons. The National Capital Region consistently reported the highest crime incidence (16%-18%), followed by Central Visayas (11%-15%) and Western Visayas (6%-10%). Regions with lower population densities (e.g., BARMM, CAR, Caraga, MIMAROPA) had lower crime rates. Significant associations between location and crime type existed both before and during the pandemic (all p-values <0.001). Before the pandemic, murder was strongly associated with BARMM and moderately with Caraga, CALABARZON, and Davao Region. Homicide was strongly associated with SOCCSKSARGEN; physical injury with Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley; rape with Ilocos, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA; robbery with NCR; theft with NCR and Central Visayas; car-napping with Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and SOCCSKSARGEN; and cattle rustling with Ilocos. During the pandemic, similar patterns were observed for most crime types, except rape, which showed strong associations with 10 regions (compared to 4 pre-pandemic). The significant increase in rape cases during the pandemic aligns with global trends reporting a rise in gender-based violence during lockdowns.

The study's findings support the effectiveness of government initiatives in reducing crime in the Philippines. The decline in crime incidence, further amplified by COVID-19 lockdowns, underscores the importance of proactive crime prevention strategies. The association between crime type and location highlights the need for region-specific interventions. The significant increase in rape during lockdowns emphasizes the need for specific programs to address gender-based violence during public health crises. The consistent decline in other crime types despite the pandemic suggests that mobility restrictions significantly impacted crime opportunities. The study's results can inform localized crime prevention programs, focusing resources on high-crime areas and specific crime types.

This study demonstrates that sustained government efforts, along with pandemic-related lockdowns, have led to a significant decrease in index crimes in the Philippines. The strong association between location and crime type highlights the need for targeted, location-specific crime prevention strategies. The increase in rape during the pandemic underscores the importance of addressing gender-based violence during crises. Future research could focus on precinct-level analysis for more granular insights into crime patterns and the effectiveness of specific interventions.

The study relies on existing crime data from the PSA, which might not capture all crimes accurately. The analysis is limited to index crimes and does not cover other crime categories. Furthermore, the study does not explore the underlying social and economic factors contributing to crime variations across different regions.