Climate variability significantly impacts crop yields, threatening food security. This study investigates the influence of sub-seasonal dry-wet spell patterns on maize yield fluctuations in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), considering spatial heterogeneity. Results indicate that shifts in specific dry-wet spell patterns across growth stages explain 50–60% of interannual yield variation, exceeding the explanatory power of mean precipitation and temperature changes (30–35%). Precipitation primarily drives the onset of dry spells, while temperature's influence increases with event intensity, peaking at the start of the growing season. This large-scale analysis, suitable for data-limited regions, can inform climate-smart agriculture in developing areas.

Patricia Marcos-Garcia, Cesar Carmona-Moreno, Marco Pastori