International trade sanctions imposed due to the Russia-Ukraine war may cause unequal distribution of environmental and health impacts

The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated into international trade sanctions targeting Russia’s energy-related products. Here we combine a global general equilibrium model and an atmospheric source-receptor model to explore the environmental, economic, and public-health effects of varying intensities of trade sanction measures. Our results indicate that the trade-offs between economic development and environmental pressure might not be directly proportional, where one-fifth of global regions (e.g., Russia, China, and Central America) would experience a co-harm situation (e.g., decreased GDP and increased emissions and health risks). Intensifying trade sanctions measures would reallocate the energy production and export to less-developed regions (e.g., Europe and Central Asia), thereby exacerbating the uneven distribution of environmental and health outcomes among regions. The global repercussions of the trade sanctions highlight the necessity of considering the consequences on regions beyond the conflict to formulate desired global initiatives for impact mitigation/adaptation and post-conflict restoration.

Guohe Huang, Leian Chen, Bin Luo