The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a global wheat price surge and food insecurity in import-dependent nations. This study combines global wheat supply network analysis with an agricultural commodity price model to examine national supply disruptions and the global annual wheat price increase for the 2022 trade year. Scenario analysis reveals that international cooperation, via initiatives like the Black Sea Grain and Solidarity Lanes, mitigated the price hike by 13 percentage points. A worst-case scenario (multi-breadbasket failures, escalating export restrictions, and blocked Ukrainian exports) projects a 90% price increase compared to the 2000-2020 average. Coping strategies, such as stock dispersal, reduced wheat feed use, and production boosts, are effective in simplified scenarios. The study emphasizes the need for coordinated policy responses to prevent global food supply disruptions.

Kilian Kuhla, Michael J. Puma, Christian Otto