Environmental Studies and Forestry

Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal

R. J. Brecha, G. Ganti, et al.

This groundbreaking research evaluates the compatibility of major institutional emission scenarios with the Paris Agreement's ambitious 1.5°C target. The authors reveal that only the IEA's Net Zero 2050 scenario meets the necessary criteria, while probing into the critical energy system transformations needed for alignment.

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the compatibility of influential institutional emission scenarios (from Shell, BP, and the IEA) with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Using a consistent methodology, the authors compare these scenarios to IPCC Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios, harmonizing emissions data and accounting for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursors. Only the IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario aligns with the Paris Agreement criteria. The study investigates the root causes of misalignment, focusing on underlying energy system transformations.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Jul 26, 2022

Authors

Robert J. Brecha, Gaurav Ganti, Robin D. Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Bill Hare, Jared Lewis, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Christopher J. Smith, Matthew J. Gidden

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