This paper evaluates the compatibility of influential institutional emission scenarios (from Shell, BP, and the IEA) with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Using a consistent methodology, the authors compare these scenarios to IPCC Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios, harmonizing emissions data and accounting for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursors. Only the IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario aligns with the Paris Agreement criteria. The study investigates the root causes of misalignment, focusing on underlying energy system transformations.

Robert J. Brecha, Gaurav Ganti, Robin D. Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Bill Hare, Jared Lewis, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Christopher J. Smith, Matthew J. Gidden