This paper evaluates the compatibility of influential institutional emission scenarios (from Shell, BP, and the IEA) with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Using a consistent methodology, the authors compare these scenarios to IPCC Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios, harmonizing emissions data and accounting for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursors. Only the IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario aligns with the Paris Agreement criteria. The study investigates the root causes of misalignment, focusing on underlying energy system transformations.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Jul 26, 2022
Authors
Robert J. Brecha, Gaurav Ganti, Robin D. Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Bill Hare, Jared Lewis, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Christopher J. Smith, Matthew J. Gidden
Tags
emission scenarios
Paris Agreement
1.5°C goal
IEA
energy system transformations
greenhouse gases
IPCC
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