Environmental Studies and ForestryNature Climate Change
A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit
E. Bevacqua, C. Schleussner, et al.
The Paris Agreement's temperature goals are defined as 20-year averages relative to a pre-industrial baseline. Although 2024 was announced as the first calendar year above 1.5 °C, the implications for the 20-year goal remained unclear. This study shows that, without very stringent mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C. This research was conducted by Emanuele Bevacqua, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jakob Zscheischler.
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