India's Afghanistan policy: a quest for strategic space post the US withdrawal

The research question centers on evaluating the effectiveness of India's post-9/11 Afghanistan policy in establishing strategic influence, particularly in light of the Taliban's resurgence. The study analyzes the evolution of India's approach, considering the context of protracted conflict in Afghanistan, the US-led intervention, and the complex regional dynamics involving Pakistan. The importance of the study lies in understanding India's foreign policy strategies in a volatile geopolitical environment and assessing the limitations of soft power approaches in the face of major geopolitical shifts. The paper's purpose is to provide a comprehensive analysis of India's actions and their consequences, offering insights into the challenges of achieving strategic objectives in a region characterized by enduring conflict and great power competition.

The paper draws upon a range of scholarly articles, commentaries, news reports, and official government documents to trace the trajectory of Indo-Afghan relations. It situates its analysis within the framework of neo-realist theory, focusing on states as rational actors seeking to maximize their power and security in an anarchic international system. The neo-realist lens helps explain India's pursuit of influence in Afghanistan as a means to counterbalance Pakistan's regional ambitions and prevent the use of Afghan territory against India. The review also considers historical factors, highlighting the long-standing economic and cultural links between India and Afghanistan, alongside the influence of the Cold War and the US-led War on Terror on the bilateral relationship.

This paper employs a qualitative research approach to analyze the evolution of India's foreign policy toward Afghanistan. Data sources include primary sources such as official government communiqués, treaties, and statements by political leaders from both India and Afghanistan. Secondary sources encompass scholarly articles, commentaries, and news reports. The analysis applies the theoretical framework of neo-realism in international relations, which views states as rational actors pursuing self-interest in an anarchic international system. Neo-realism provides a framework for understanding India's actions in Afghanistan as strategic moves to secure its national interests in the region. The study examines the interplay of domestic, structural, and individual factors in shaping India's Afghan policy over time. A historical analysis is used to demonstrate the evolution of the relationship, identifying key turning points and policy shifts. The paper critically examines India's reliance on soft power, considering its successes and limitations in light of regional power dynamics.

India's engagement with Afghanistan post-9/11 was characterized by a soft power approach focused on civilian assistance, prioritizing development projects over military intervention. India emerged as a major development partner for Afghanistan, providing substantial aid in infrastructure, education, and healthcare. These efforts earned India considerable goodwill among ordinary Afghans. However, this focus on soft power and the neglect of engagement with the Taliban proved strategically short-sighted. The hasty US withdrawal and the subsequent Taliban takeover in 2021 led to India's loss of its physical presence and the disruption of major projects. Despite this setback, India responded with humanitarian aid to mitigate the humanitarian crisis. India, recognizing the necessity of engaging with the de facto authority, initiated steps toward re-establishing communication with the Taliban regime. This engagement includes humanitarian aid, discussions on trade, and exploring pathways to restore diplomatic relations. The paper observes the changing dynamics between Afghanistan and Pakistan, suggesting that India might leverage the deteriorating relations to regain influence. A key factor highlighted is India's failure to engage proactively with the Taliban even when their growing influence was evident, a consequence of historical hostility and concerns about the group's ideology and human rights record. The analysis reveals that India’s reliance on a single strategic partner (the Afghan government) made its policy vulnerable to dramatic shifts in power.

The findings suggest that India's post-9/11 Afghanistan policy, while initially successful in establishing goodwill and fostering development, ultimately suffered from a lack of strategic foresight. The over-reliance on soft power and a failure to engage with the Taliban, despite growing evidence of their resurgence, proved detrimental. The study indicates that even humanitarian efforts, crucial as they are, may not be sufficient to achieve broader strategic objectives in a highly unstable environment. The paper underscores the importance of adapting policy to rapidly changing circumstances and engaging with all relevant actors, even those with differing ideologies. The complex interplay of regional rivalries and great power competition significantly shaped India's choices and outcomes in Afghanistan. The study highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of the political landscape and the limitations of relying solely on one approach when dealing with a protracted conflict.

India's Afghanistan policy presents a case study of the challenges in achieving long-term strategic goals in conflict-ridden regions. The paper's main contribution is a comprehensive analysis of India's multifaceted approach and its vulnerabilities. Future research could investigate the effectiveness of different strategies for engagement in similar contexts, comparing soft power approaches with more multifaceted ones. Additionally, further research could analyze the effectiveness of humanitarian aid as a tool for influence in regions facing instability and the long-term implications of neglecting engagement with non-state actors.

The study primarily relies on publicly available information and may not fully capture the intricacies of India's internal policy-making processes. The analysis focuses on India's perspective, potentially overlooking the views and experiences of other actors involved. The rapidly evolving situation in Afghanistan presents challenges for assessing the long-term impacts of India's policy.