Declining Arctic sea ice has increased coastal hazards in the Alaskan Arctic. This study uses climate model projections of sea ice in extratropical cyclone simulations to quantify how future changes in seasonal ice coverage affect coastal waves. All future scenarios show increased coastal wave heights, extending the season of open water exposure to wave hazards by an additional winter month by 2050 and up to three months by 2070, depending on the climate pathway. The Beaufort coastal region may reach wave saturation limits during sea ice minimum, losing the historical sea ice protection.

Martin Henke, Tyler Miesse, André de Souza de Lima, Celso M. Ferreira, Thomas M. Ravens