Earth Sciences

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Y. Zou, P. J. Rasch, et al.

This groundbreaking study by Yufei Zou, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Zuowei Xie, and Rudong Zhang uncovers the intriguing connection between declining Arctic sea ice and the increase in large wildfires across the western U.S. Their findings show how changes in Arctic conditions have a substantial impact on local weather patterns and fire risk, highlighting a crucial aspect of climate change.

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Abstract

This study investigates the link between increasing large wildfires in the western U.S. and declining Arctic sea ice. Analysis of observations, climate model experiments, and a multi-model ensemble demonstrates that declining Arctic sea ice in preceding months correlates with more fire-favorable weather in the western U.S. during autumn, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. This Arctic-driven teleconnection is explained through changes in regional circulation, a poleward-shifted polar jet stream, and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The magnitude of fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice is comparable to other major climate variability modes like El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Oct 26, 2021

Authors

Yufei Zou, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Zuowei Xie, Rudong Zhang

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