This research investigates the projected impacts of climate change on insurance losses from North Atlantic hurricanes using insurance loss data and stochastic modeling. The study finds that for +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios, expected changes in wind speed and rainfall may increase hurricane losses by 5–15% and 10–30%, respectively, with greater impacts at lower return periods. The historical 100-year loss event's return period may shorten to 80 years (+2°C) and 70 years (+4°C). Expected average annual loss increases are projected at 10% (+2°C) and 15% (+4°C), with precipitation-induced losses showing the largest relative increase. Under the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario, the expected loss inflation due to climate change is estimated at approximately 0.5% per annum.

Francesco Comola, Bernhard Märtl, Hilary Paul, Christian Bruns, Klaus Sapelza