Automated long haul trucking is being developed for commercial deployment in the United States. This paper studies the potential impacts on tractor-trailer operator-hours using data from the 2017 Commodity Flow Survey and interviews with industry stakeholders. Findings indicate that up to 94% of long haul trucking operator-hours may be impacted with widespread automation, but only 10% if limited to current testing regions. An increase in short haul operations is unlikely to compensate for long haul job losses. Policymakers should consider the deployment scenarios' impact on the workforce.

Aniruddh Mohan, Parth Vaishnav