How long and how strong must a climatic anomaly be in order to evoke a social transformation? Historical and contemporaneous case studies

This article investigates the relationship between climatic anomalies and societal transformations. The authors challenge the common focus on short-term events, arguing that prolonged, gradual anomalies like droughts significantly impact societies. Through qualitative analyses of collapse periods in 11th-12th century Western Asia and Northern China, and a high-resolution examination of the 2010 crisis in Mali, they demonstrate that extended climate anomalies affecting food availability are most impactful. While societies can cope with short-term food crises, prolonged anomalies accelerate decisive processes, increase migration, violence, and religious extremism, leading to structural societal change.

Tal Ulus, Ronnie Ellenblum