Health and Fitness

High-resolution modeling and projection of heat-related mortality in Germany under climate change

J. Wang, N. Nikolaou, et al.

Discover how a groundbreaking multi-scale machine learning model predicts a staggering 48,000 heat-related deaths in Germany from 2014 to 2023, predominantly during heatwaves. This vital study, conducted by Junyu Wang, Nikolaos Nikolaou, Matthias an der Heiden, and Christopher Irrgang, warns of a potential 2.5 to 9-fold increase in mortality by 2100 without crucial adaptation measures.

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Abstract

Heat has become a leading cause of preventable deaths during summer. This study uses a multi-scale machine learning model to estimate heat-related mortality in Germany with variable temporal and spatial resolution. The model estimates 48,000 heat-related deaths in Germany (2014–2023), with most occurring during heatwaves. Projections suggest a 2.5 to 9-fold increase in heat-related mortality by 2100 without adaptation, highlighting the need for targeted adaptation measures.

Publisher

Communications Medicine

Published On

Oct 21, 2024

Authors

Junyu Wang, Nikolaos Nikolaou, Matthias an der Heiden, Christopher Irrgang

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