Earth Sciences

Hidden pressurized fluids prior to the 2014 phreatic eruption at Mt Ontake

C. Caudron, Y. Aoki, et al.

The 2014 phreatic eruption at Mt Ontake, Japan, revealed startling insights into volcanic activity, with researchers employing innovative seismic monitoring techniques to identify changes in velocity and strain five months prior to the event. This study, conducted by Corentin Caudron, Yosuke Aoki, Thomas Lecocq, and others, showcases the potential of advanced monitoring to predict future eruptions.

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Abstract

The 2014 phreatic eruption at Mt Ontake, Japan, resulted in significant casualties. This study uses continuous seismic recordings to identify correlated seismic velocity and volumetric strain changes starting five months before the eruption, a period previously considered quiescent. Novel approaches, including covariance matrix eigenvalues distribution and deep-learning models, reveal critically stressed conditions in the volcano's upper portions, potentially triggered by pressurized fluids. These findings highlight the potential of seismic monitoring for predicting such eruptions.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Oct 17, 2022

Authors

Corentin Caudron, Yosuke Aoki, Thomas Lecocq, Raphael De Plaen, Jean Soubestre, Aurelien Mordret, Leonard Seydoux, Toshiko Terakawa

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