Hidden pressurized fluids prior to the 2014 phreatic eruption at Mt Ontake

A large fraction of volcanic eruptions does not expel magma at the surface. Such an eruption occurred at Mt Ontake in 2014, claiming the life of at least 58 hikers in what became the worst volcanic disaster in Japan in almost a century. Tens of scientific studies attempted to identify a precursor and to unravel the processes at work but overall remain inconclusive. By taking advantage of continuous seismic recordings, we uncover an intriguing sequence of correlated seismic velocity and volumetric strain changes starting 5 months before the eruption; a period previously considered as completely quiescent. We use various novel approaches such as covariance matrix eigenvalues distribution, cutting-edge deep-learning models, and ascribe such velocity pattern as reflecting critically stressed conditions in the upper portions of the volcano. These, in turn, later triggered detectable deformation and earthquakes. Our results shed light onto previously undetected pressurized fluids using stations located above the volcano-hydrothermal system and hold great potential for monitoring.

Corentin Caudron, Yosuke Aoki, Thomas Lecocq, Raphael De Plaen, Jean Soubestre, Aurelien Mordret, Leonard Seydoux, Toshiko Terakawa