Grade Inflation in Turkish Business Administration Undergraduate Programmes: A Longitudinal Study (2002–2022)

The study investigates grade inflation in Turkish higher education, focusing on undergraduate business administration programs. Motivated by concerns that uneven or inflated grading can distort performance signals, exacerbate inequality, and mislead stakeholders, the research examines trends in honors graduation rates and GPAs over two decades and identifies factors associated with higher course grades. While grade inflation has been widely studied in the United States, there is limited evidence from other contexts; this work addresses that gap for Turkey.

Prior research links dysfunctional grading to reduced human capital, distorted student signals, and compromised evaluation standards (Koedel, 2011). Students perceive low GPAs as disadvantaging them in labor markets, with some employers screening out GPAs below 3.5 (Butcher et al., 2014). Uneven grading can worsen social inequality, benefitting already privileged students, such as those in private schools (Finefter-Rosenbluh & Levinson, 2015). Studies document pervasive grade inflation in American universities (e.g., Kostal et al., 2016; Lin, 2019), but there has been limited attention to grade inflation in higher education outside the U.S. (Karadag, 2021a).

Research design: The study employs secondary research methods, compiling and analyzing previously collected administrative data from Turkish universities to assess grade inflation in business administration undergraduate programs. Secondary data are considered reliable as they are sourced directly from institutions. Data set: The population comprises graduates of business administration undergraduate programs across 40 Turkish universities, selected based on university entry percentile rankings. All programs since 1998 were grouped into ten tiers using percentiles of the last admitted student. From these, data covering 2002–2022 were assembled: (1) General Weighted GPA records for 46,415 graduates to analyze changes in the share of honors graduates (>2.99) and overall grade inflation; (2) End-of-year course grade data for 515,739 student-course observations across 12,579 courses (14-week academic year) to study determinants of course grades. Course grades were standardized to a semantic letter-to-4-point scale (AA=4.0 ... FF=0.0) to enable comparability. Data analysis: A random effects estimator (real/university random effects estimator, REE) was employed to account for time-invariant heterogeneity at the university level and differences across students and institutions (Greene, 2005), chosen due to sample randomness, non-normal distributions, and heterogeneity of programs. Dependent variables included graduation grades; the key independent variable was year. For analyses of honors share (RQ1) and grade inflation (RQ2), controls included: percentile of last admitted student, university type (state vs. non-profit private), program gender ratio, and language of instruction (Turkish vs. English), modeled via k−1 dummies. For RQ3, ANOVA and t-tests assessed effects of gender, class level, course language, instructor title, and course content/area on course grades.

- Honors share growth: The proportion of honors graduates (>2.99) rose from 11% in 2002 to 56% in 2022. Concurrently, “good” degrees (2.50–2.99) increased from 32% to 35%, while “average” degrees (2.00–2.49) fell from 57% to 11%. - Random effects estimates (honors likelihood): A higher entrance percentile (i.e., stronger incoming cohort) is associated with a lower honors rate (In(percentile of the last student): −0.37, SE=0.058, p<0.001). Example: a 10% reduction in entrance scores corresponds to a 3.7% increase in honors share. Female composition positively predicts honors (In(% Female): 0.23, SE=0.085, p<0.001). Turkish-medium instruction predicts higher honors relative to English-medium (−0.08, SE=0.109, p<0.001 indicates lower honors in English-medium). No significant difference between non-profit private and state universities. - GPA inflation: Mean GPA increased from 2.47 (SD=0.90) in 2002 to 3.20 (SD=0.97) in 2022—a 29.22% rise (t=12.33, p<0.001). Year-over-year increases were significant; the largest annual increases occurred in 2022 (3.63%) and 2021 (3.28%). Adjusting via ANCOVA for entrance percentile, gender ratio, and language of instruction, the 20-year increase in graduation GPA remained substantial at 28.05%. - Course-level determinants: Female students earned higher course grades (M=2.86, SD=0.82) than males (M=2.64, SD=0.86), t=12.01, p<0.001. ANOVA showed significant differences by class level (F=106.08, p<0.001); fourth-year courses had the highest mean grade (M=3.29).

Findings indicate pronounced grade inflation in Turkish business administration programs from 2002 to 2022, reflected in both a sharp rise in honors degrees and a near 30% increase in average GPAs, even after adjustment for key covariates. Programs with lower entry selectivity (lower entrance scores) award honors at higher rates, suggesting that institutional selectivity is inversely related to top-grade prevalence. Gender effects show female students outperforming males at both course and graduation levels, and Turkish-medium instruction corresponds to higher honors likelihood relative to English-medium instruction. No difference was detected between state and non-profit private universities in honors rates. The study contextualizes these trends with potential mechanisms, including shifts during the COVID-19 period, where rapid transitions to remote instruction, limited online infrastructure, and reliance on assignments or single examinations may have contributed to higher grades. These results underscore concerns about the signaling value of grades, potential inequities, and the need to interpret GPA-based credentials with caution across institutions and over time.

The study documents substantial grade inflation in Turkish undergraduate business administration programs over two decades, with honors shares and GPAs increasing markedly. Institutional selectivity, gender composition, and language of instruction are significant correlates of higher grades, while university sector (state vs. non-profit private) is not. These results contribute cross-national evidence to the grade inflation literature and highlight the need for stakeholders to account for institutional and temporal context when using grades for evaluation and selection. Future research should incorporate psychological and behavioral variables (e.g., entitlement expectations, gender bias, anxiety, risk preferences, interpersonal dynamics), examine instructor- and student-level heterogeneity, and extend analyses to other disciplines and countries to assess policy and cultural influences on grading practices.

The analysis focuses on a limited set of explanatory factors and spans a 20-year period; additional variables related to instructor and student characteristics were not included. The abrupt shift to remote instruction during COVID-19 may have affected grading practices in ways not fully captured by available controls. Generalizability beyond business administration and beyond Turkey requires caution.