Agriculture

Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation

J. S. Gerber, D. K. Ray, et al.

This paper reveals a comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. It identifies regions of 'steady growth', 'stalled floor', and 'ceiling pressure', shedding light on the risks of yield stagnation. The research, conducted by a team of experts, emphasizes crucial policy recommendations for food security.

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Abstract

This paper presents a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps widened steadily for most areas of eight annual crops and remained static for sugarcane and oil palm. A three-category typology differentiates regions of 'steady growth', 'stalled floor', and 'ceiling pressure'. 'Ceiling pressure' correlates with subsequent yield stagnation, highlighting risks for countries currently experiencing yield growth. The study uses quantile regression to model attainable yields and analyzes trends to inform policy recommendations for food security.

Publisher

Nature Food

Published On

Feb 26, 2024

Authors

James S. Gerber, Deepak K. Ray, David Makowski, Ethan E. Butler, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Paul C. West, Justin A. Johnson, Stephen Polasky, Leah H. Samberg, Stefan Siebert, Lindsey Sloat

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