Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk

This study investigates the socioeconomic impacts of mid-century heat stress, integrating climate, epidemiological, and economic models. It finds that global annual GDP loss increases exponentially, reaching 0.6-4.6% by 2060, attributed to health loss (37-45%), labor productivity loss (18-37%), and indirect losses from supply chain disruptions (12-43%). Small- and medium-sized developing countries are disproportionately affected, with significant health and labor losses. Supply chain disruptions heavily impact manufacturing-heavy countries like China and the USA. The study emphasizes the previously under-analyzed indirect losses amplified by global trade.

Yida Sun, Shupeng Zhu, Daoping Wang, Jianping Duan, Hui Lu, Hao Yin, Chang Tan, Lingrui Zhang, Mengzhen Zhao, Wenjia Cai, Yong Wang, Yixin Hu, Shu Tao, Dabo Guan