Quantifying the dynamics of land use change is critical in tackling global societal challenges such as food security, climate change, and biodiversity loss. This study analyzes the dynamics of global land use change at an unprecedented spatial resolution by combining multiple open data streams (remote sensing, reconstructions, and statistics) to create the Historic Land Dynamics Assessment + (HILDA+). The findings estimate that land use change has affected almost a third (32%) of the global land area in just six decades (1960–2019) and is around four times greater in extent than previously estimated from long-term land change assessments. Geographically diverging land use change processes are identified, with afforestation and cropland abandonment in the Global North and deforestation and agricultural expansion in the South. The study shows that observed phases of accelerating (1960–2005) and decelerating (2006–2019) land use change can be explained by the effects of global trade on agricultural production.

Karina Winkler, Richard Fuchs, Mark Rounsevell, Martin Herold