Global expansion of tropical cyclone precipitation footprint

Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) causes massive damage from inland floods and is intensifying under a warming climate. This study introduces DIST30, a metric representing the footprint of heavy TC precipitation, showing a significant global increase (0.34 km/year). Increases in DIST30 cover 59.87% of TC impact areas, particularly in the Western North Pacific, Northern Atlantic, and Southern Pacific. An XGBoost model reveals that DIST30 variability is primarily controlled by TC maximum wind speed, location, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and total water column vapor. TC poleward migration in the Northern Hemisphere significantly contributes to the global DIST30 upward trend.

Lianjie Qin, Laiyin Zhu, Baoyin Liu, Zixuan Li, Yugang Tian, Gordon Mitchell, Shifei Shen, Wei Xu, Jianguo Chen