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Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation

Earth Sciences

Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation

G. Zhang

Explore how climate models reveal surprising insights into future tropical cyclone activity, as research by Gan Zhang uncovers the impact of warming-induced contraction of tropical convection on TC formation and peak-season activity.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Climate models show contrasting projections for future tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. This study demonstrates that warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces TC formation. This contraction, characterized by stronger equatorial and weaker off-equatorial convection, shortens TC seasons and suppresses peak-season activity. The convection contraction and associated warming patterns partly explain the ensemble spread in projecting future TC frequency, highlighting the need for coordinated research to improve future TC risk projections.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Oct 07, 2023
Authors
Gan Zhang
Tags
tropical cyclone
climate models
convection
warming
TC frequency
risk projections
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