This study uses a joint species distribution model (J-SDM) to project future marine fish biomass distributions in the Northeast Atlantic, from the North Sea to the Barents Sea, under various climate change scenarios. The model incorporates occurrence and biomass data for 107 fish species from 16,345 fishery-independent trawls (2004-2022). Projections indicate overall increases in richness and decreases in relative dominance, with generalized increases in species ranges and biomass. However, declines in capelin and polar cod lead to an overall reduction in fish biomass at Arctic latitudes. Arctic demersal fish face a high extinction risk by 2100 if climate refugia are unavailable.

Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca, Mark John Costello, Marta Coll, Alexander Jüterbock, Henning Reiss, Fabrice Stephenson