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Future transition from forests to shrublands and grasslands in the western United States is expected to reduce carbon storage

Environmental Studies and Forestry

Future transition from forests to shrublands and grasslands in the western United States is expected to reduce carbon storage

J. M. Kodero, B. S. Felzer, et al.

Discover how climate change is set to reshape the landscapes of the western United States, with significant shifts from forested regions to shrubland and grassland, resulting in substantial carbon loss. This crucial research by Jared M. Kodero, Benjamin S. Felzer, and Yuning Shi underscores the urgent need to address the impacts of climate change on our ecosystems.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact vegetation in the western United States, leading to shifts in dominant Plant Functional Types (PFTs) and carbon storage. This study used a biogeographic model integrated with a biogeochemical model to predict changes in dominant PFTs by 2070–2100. Results show that under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, 40% of originally forested areas will transition to shrubland (7%) or grassland (32%), while under RCP 8.5, 58% will shift to shrubland (18%) or grassland (40%). These shifts result in a net loss in carbon storage (−60 gigagram of carbon under RCP 4.5 and −82 gigagram of carbon under RCP 8.5). Findings highlight the need to mitigate climate change's effects on vegetation and carbon storage.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Feb 12, 2024
Authors
Jared M. Kodero, Benjamin S. Felzer, Yuning Shi
Tags
climate change
vegetation shift
carbon storage
western United States
Plant Functional Types
biogeographic model
biogeochemical model

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