Sociology

Facilitating fertility decline through economic development: a principal-agent analysis of local bureaucratic incentives in China's fertility transition

S. Liang, S. Liu, et al.

This groundbreaking study reveals how local Chinese officials accelerated fertility decline through economic advancements for career progression. Utilizing a principal-agent model with extensive provincial data, the research unveils the intricate relationship between GDP growth, total fertility rate dynamics, and bureaucratic promotions. Experience the fascinating insights from authors Shengyuan Liang, Shanmin Liu, and Canmian Liu.

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Abstract

This study uses a principal-agent model and 1980–2000 Chinese provincial panel data to show how local officials facilitated fertility decline through economic development for career advancement. System GMM and ordered logistic regression results indicate that GDP per capita growth and TFR decline increased promotion odds, while excessive TFR decline decreased them. The study is the first to apply principal-agent theory to explain bureaucratic processes in fertility transitions, combining political and economic-driven theories to advance political demography.

Publisher

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications

Published On

Dec 14, 2023

Authors

Shengyuan Liang, Shanmin Liu, Canmian Liu

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