Exploring the mechanism of path-creating strategy for latecomers: a combined approach of econometrics and causal machine learning

In this paper, the traditional econometrics method and causal machine-learning method are combined to study the mechanism of a path-creating strategy of latecomers to influence latecomers’ catch-up performance. A total of 283 high-tech manufacturing enterprises listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2019 were selected for the study. OLS linear regression model verifies that path-creating has a positive impact on latecomers’ technological catch-up performance, technological capability plays an intermediary role between path-creating and technology catch-up performance, technological innovation appropriability positively moderates the effect of path-creating on technological capability, and technological innovation cumulativeness negatively moderates the effect of path-creating on technological catch-up but positively moderate the effect of technological capability on catch-up performance. Through machine learning, on the one hand, a conclusion basically consistent with the linear regression model is obtained, but on the other hand, a more heterogeneous situation is presented. Through analyses of the individual treatment effect of a path-creating strategy of latecomers, the Shapley value graph shows the complex influence of different features on the treatment effect of the enterprise using the path-creating strategy. Through the decision tree, some more complex patterns are found. In addition, the decision tree model based on causal analysis can also assist enterprises in making strategic decisions.