Examples of shifting development pathways: lessons on how to enable broader, deeper, and faster climate action

The paper highlights the urgency of shifting development pathways towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions to address the climate crisis. Despite previous IPCC assessments urging faster mitigation, GHG emissions continue to rise. The authors argue for a broader framing, shifting development paths towards sustainability (SDPS), as emphasized in the IPCC Working Group III Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This approach recognizes that achieving significant emissions reductions requires policies beyond conventional emission-focused measures. The paper explores the enabling conditions for such shifts, analyzing examples across various sectors to identify applicable lessons and context-specific enablers. The central research questions focus on identifying these enabling conditions, extracting applicable lessons from successful SDPS examples, differentiating between broadly and context-specifically applicable enablers, and demonstrating how such shifts can broaden mitigation options. The methodology involves developing working definitions of key terms, outlining a framework for selecting SDPS examples, presenting seven case studies, assessing them against a set of enablers, and drawing general lessons from the analysis. The authors employ an inductive analysis based on existing literature and aim to provide policy-relevant insights.

The paper builds upon existing literature on mainstreaming climate into development, earlier assessments of sustainable development in climate change, and the connections between sustainable development, poverty, and inequality. However, it distinguishes itself by explicitly focusing on development pathways, an aspect not explicitly addressed in earlier IPCC assessments. The authors acknowledge the concept of SDPS, as it emerged in AR6, which highlights the need to strengthen enabling conditions for mitigation and sustainable development. They cite previous work on mainstreaming climate into development (Bickersteth et al. 2017; Halsnaes and Shukla 2005), earlier assessments of sustainable development in climate change (IPCC et al. 2001; Pahle et al. 2021; Sathaye et al. 2007), and the connection with poverty and inequality (Roy et al. 2018). The paper positions itself as the first to analyze how to shift development pathways towards sustainability using a set of case studies.

The paper adopts a qualitative, inductive approach, analyzing selected case studies of SDPS to identify key levers and enablers. The authors use existing studies to assess cases, including both empirical and modeled data. They avoid a large-n study and do not claim statistical representativeness. The selection of case studies follows a framework that considers two dimensions of change: temporal (historical vs. future) and spatial (economy-wide vs. sector-specific interventions). The selection criteria included at least one case for each temporal-spatial combination and geographical diversity. The cases represent various contexts across different regions and levels of development, with a focus on different economic sectors. The methodology acknowledges the complexities of economy-wide SDPS and considers the limitations of generalizations from case studies. The authors emphasize the exploratory nature of the study, making no claim to present a theory or explanatory model, and clearly outlines the limitations of generalizing from the selected examples. The terms 'enabling conditions' and 'enablers' are used interchangeably to refer to the tools used to induce shifts. The authors also define key concepts such as development pathways, shifts of development pathways, and shifting development pathways towards sustainability.

The paper presents seven case studies illustrating SDPS across various contexts: (1) Education, family choices, and public policy in the US, demonstrating how educational policies influence urban sprawl and emissions. (2) Making inner-city housing affordable in Paris, showing how housing policies impact suburbanization and transportation demands. (3) Transformational change in transport systems in Costa Rica, highlighting the role of policy interventions in decarbonizing transportation. (4) Shifts to provide universal energy access and control illegal deforestation in Brazil, illustrating how integrated policies can address multiple sustainable development goals. (5) Mitigation and preserving equality in Sweden, showcasing successful economy-wide policies that address both mitigation and equity. (6) Coal transition led by a state-owned enterprise in India, demonstrating the potential for impactful interventions within specific sectors. (7) Change in economic structure in South Africa, illustrating a long-term vision for economy-wide transformation. The analysis reveals that successful SDPS often involve multiple enablers, integrated policy packages, and broad actor involvement. Some enablers provide near-term results, while others require a longer timeframe. Finance, long-term vision, and a focus on sustainable development objectives are identified as more widely applicable enablers. The findings underscore the need for an "all of economy, all of society" approach to effective climate mitigation.

The findings support the argument that achieving significant climate mitigation requires a holistic approach that goes beyond conventional emission-focused policies. The case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of integrated policy packages that address multiple objectives simultaneously. The identification of broadly applicable enablers such as finance and long-term vision provides valuable insights for policymakers. The emphasis on context-specific factors highlights the importance of adapting strategies to local circumstances. The paper's contribution lies in its empirical analysis of SDPS, offering practical examples and lessons for policymakers seeking to accelerate climate action while advancing broader development goals. The "all of economy, all of society" approach advocated by the paper suggests a paradigm shift in climate policy, moving beyond sectoral interventions to embrace holistic strategies that integrate climate action with broader sustainable development priorities.

The paper concludes that achieving ambitious climate mitigation targets necessitates an "all of economy, all of society" approach, shifting development pathways towards sustainability. Successful examples demonstrate the importance of integrated policy packages, multiple enablers, and broad actor involvement. While some enablers yield quick results, others require longer-term commitment. The findings highlight the value of learning from successful experiences in different contexts while acknowledging the importance of context-specific adaptation. Future research could explore the dynamics of policy integration and the long-term impacts of different enabling conditions on SDPS.

The paper acknowledges the limitations of generalizing from a limited number of case studies. The selection of cases, while geographically diverse and representing different sectors, may not be fully representative of all possible SDPS experiences. The qualitative nature of the analysis limits the ability to establish causal relationships definitively. Further research with a broader range of cases and employing more robust quantitative methods could strengthen the generalizability of the findings. The study’s focus on intentional shifts may overlook unintentional shifts in development pathways that also contribute to sustainability.