This study investigates environmental conditions associated with tornadoes in Japan using pseudo-soundings from the high-resolution fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis. It identifies parameters that effectively discriminate between F2+ and weaker tornadoes, finding that multivariate parameters offer better distinction. Analysis reveals significant increases in F2+ tornado environments in certain regions over the past four decades. A large ensemble 2-K warming experiment projects robust increases in strong tornado environments across many regions of Japan, primarily due to increased atmospheric instability despite projected decreases in some other parameters.
