Evaluating financial fragility: a case study of Chinese banking and finance systems

Global financial systems are inherently fragile due to their complexities. Thus, it is of great interest to devise various methods to assess the dynamics of financial fragility. As such, this study builds a financial fragility evaluation index system. The study finds three major fluctuations in the trend of financial fragility due to the great recession in 2008, the huge financial volatility in 2015, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. It also tests the index system on the Chinese finance market from 2007 to 2022. Observations of capital adequacy, non-performing loans, and liquidity ratios, in addition to the average return on total assets, are used to assess banking fragility. The results attained show that amongst the tested banks, the Bank of Ningbo has the lowest vulnerability score, mainly due to its higher average return on total assets, capital adequacy ratios, and lower non-performing loan ratio. On the other end of the spectrum, China Minsheng Bank has the highest vulnerability score due to its lower capital adequacy and higher non-performing loan ratios. These findings provide valuable insights into the banking sector in China for policy formulation.

Li Shang, Biao Zhou, Jiannan Li, Decai Tang, Valentina Boamah, Zhiwei Pan