Estimation of economic loss by earthquakes in Taiwan Region

Earthquakes in the Taiwan region have caused significant economic losses. We develop a model to assess seismic economic losses in the Taiwan region using the records of economic losses caused by historical earthquakes. Unlike existing models, we introduce Gross National Income Per Capita (GNIPC) as a parameter that responds to the influence of socio-economic development. The results show that our model can accurately estimate the earthquake economic losses in Taiwan region. The difference between the results of this model and those of existing models is evident, indicating differences between the Taiwan region and mainland China regarding geological background, seismic tectonics, and social resistance to earthquakes. The prediction results also imply that the society significantly underestimates the seismic economic losses in the Taiwan region. Our model can help the Taiwan region in disaster prevention and preparedness, contingency planning, allocation of relief resources, and post-disaster socio-economic recovery.

Yang Shi, Yilong Li, Zhenguo Zhang