Economics

Escaping the middle-income trap: A study on a developing economy

M. J. A. Islam, I. Mahmud, et al.

Can Bangladesh break free from the middle-income traps? This captivating study by Md. Jaber Al Islam and colleagues projects that with a remarkable per capita GNI growth rate of 9.69%, the nation could escape the lower-middle-income trap by 2029 and the upper-middle-income trap by 2041. However, the path to sustained growth is riddled with challenges, as revealed by contrasting quantitative analyses.

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Abstract

Middle-Income Trap (MIT) is a phenomenon wherein a nation finds itself unable to progress from a middle-income status to a high-income economy. This study investigates whether Bangladesh can escape the lower-middle and upper-middle-income traps. Using the "Number of Years Method," the study projects Bangladesh escaping the lower-middle-income trap by 2029 and the upper-middle-income trap by 2041, assuming a sustained 9.69% per capita GNI growth rate. Three additional quantitative approaches (Catch-up Growth, Growth Report, and Growth Acceleration) yielded contrasting results regarding the sustainability of this growth, highlighting the complexities involved.

Publisher

Cogent Social Sciences

Published On

Nov 23, 2023

Authors

Md. Jaber Al Islam, Imroz Mahmud, Aminul Islam, Farid Ahammad Sobhani, Md. Sharif Hassan, Arif Ahsan

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2286035

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