This study uses Large Ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to project the impacts of greenhouse warming on lake ice. The model projects a decrease in average ice coverage duration by 38 days and a reduction in maximum ice thickness by 0.23 m over the next 80 years. Accelerated lake ice loss is projected in the Canadian Arctic due to cold-season polar amplification and on the Tibetan Plateau due to strong insolation and ice-albedo feedbacks. The study finds that lake ecosystems in these regions may experience no-analog ice coverage within the next 4–5 decades.

Lei Huang, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Keith B. Rodgers, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Eui-Seok Chung