Earth Sciences

Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections

L. Huang, A. Timmermann, et al.

This groundbreaking research by Lei Huang and colleagues reveals that the Community Earth System Model projects a staggering 38-day decrease in average lake ice coverage duration and a 0.23 m reduction in maximum ice thickness over the next 80 years. The findings point to significant changes in lake ecosystems, particularly in the Canadian Arctic and Tibetan Plateau, where some regions may experience no-analog ice coverage in just a few decades.

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Abstract

This study uses Large Ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to project the impacts of greenhouse warming on lake ice. The model projects a decrease in average ice coverage duration by 38 days and a reduction in maximum ice thickness by 0.23 m over the next 80 years. Accelerated lake ice loss is projected in the Canadian Arctic due to cold-season polar amplification and on the Tibetan Plateau due to strong insolation and ice-albedo feedbacks. The study finds that lake ecosystems in these regions may experience no-analog ice coverage within the next 4–5 decades.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Oct 02, 2022

Authors

Lei Huang, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Keith B. Rodgers, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Eui-Seok Chung

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