Electric vehicle batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand by as early as 2030

The study asks whether and to what extent batteries from the rapidly growing global EV fleet can provide short-term electricity grid storage, helping to balance variable renewable generation. The context is the increasing penetration of wind and solar and electrification, which raise grid flexibility needs. EV batteries can offer grid services either while in vehicles through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) or after vehicle end-of-life (second-use). Prior work often omitted key determinants such as non-linear, chemistry-specific battery degradation, temperature effects, and realistic driving and charging behavior, as well as consumer participation and second-use deployment. This work quantifies the technical and real-world EV battery storage capacity through 2050 across major regions, assessing when and under what participation/utilisation conditions it can meet projected short-term storage demand.

Previous global studies have estimated V2G and retired battery potentials but often simplified or neglected critical factors: empirical, non-linear degradation behavior; differences across battery chemistries (e.g., NCX vs LFP); geographic/temporal temperature variation; and heterogeneous regional driving intensity and charging behavior. Social and market dimensions—consumer participation in V2G and utilisation of retired batteries—are important yet rarely quantified. The paper situates its contribution against IRENA and Storage Lab scenarios for short-term storage demand and highlights that many earlier estimates used conservative EV fleet and battery size assumptions or did not link technical capacity to actual availability for grid services.

The authors develop an integrated modeling framework linking three components to 2050 across China, India, EU, US, and Rest of World:

• Dynamic battery stock model: Projects EV battery stock, retirements, and chemistry mix under two EV fleet scenarios (IEA Stated Policies, STEP; and Sustainable Development, SD). Battery chemistries follow two paths: NCX-dominant (NMC/NCA at 98% by 2050) and LFP-dominant (LFP 60% by 2050). Average battery capacities are 33/66/100 kWh for small/mid/large BEVs and 10/15/21 kWh for mid/large/small PHEVs (as specified). EV fleet shares are extended to 2050 using literature and retained regionally post-2030 due to data limitations.
• EV use model: Derives daily driving distance distributions (by EV size/type) from Spritmonitor data; constructs driving cycles (US DOE combined cycle), and assumes immediate, slow home charging at constant power (typical residential levels). Charging frequency varies by daily driving intensity (five DDD classes relative to vehicle range). Battery state-of-charge (SoC) evolution is simulated using NREL’s FASTSim; usable SoC windows are 5%–90% for BEVs and 15%–85% for PHEVs. Ambient city temperatures (159 cities worldwide) represent battery temperature for degradation modeling.
• Battery degradation model: A semi-empirical model incorporating calendar and cycling aging (temperature, SoC, depth-of-discharge, and C-rate dependencies) is calibrated to state-of-the-art test data for LFP and NCM (NCA assumed similar to NCM). Degradation is updated daily using ambient temperatures and SoC trajectories to capture path-dependent effects. This yields chemistry- and region-specific capacity fade over time. Definitions and scenarios:
• Technical V2G capacity is the in-use EV capacity available after reserving energy for mobility, excluding PHEVs for V2G due to small packs, and accounting for degradation.
• Actual V2G capacity scales technical V2G by a participation rate (0%–100%).
• Technical second-use capacity is the capacity of retired batteries with ≥70% state-of-health (SoH) eligible for repurposing; actual second-use capacity scales by a utilisation rate (0%–100%). Collection is assumed ~100% and repurposing at the pack level with no capacity penalty; LFP packs are largely repurposable, while ~74% of retired NCX packs meet ≥70% SoH.
• Short-term storage is defined as 4-hour systems, consistent with several regulatory and market practices. The modeled capacity assumes one equivalent full charge/discharge per day (4-hour maximum discharge window). Comparison baseline:
• Modeled capacities are compared to short-term storage demand scenarios for 2030–2050: IRENA Planned Energy (3.4 TWh by 2050), IRENA Transforming Energy (9 TWh), Storage Lab Conservative (8.8 TWh), and Storage Lab Optimistic (19.2 TWh). Sensitivity includes an extreme small-BEV-only case (33 kWh) to test robustness against battery size assumptions.

• Global technical capacity: Total EV battery technical capacity (V2G + second-use) reaches 32–62 TWh by 2050 across scenarios; SD-LFP is highest. By 2030, STEP-NCX ≈ 2.6 TWh and SD-LFP ≈ 3.8 TWh; by 2050, STEP-NCX ≈ 32 TWh and SD-LFP ≈ 62 TWh.
• Growth relative to demand: Technical capacities grow 13–16× from 2030 to 2050 and meet or exceed projected short-term storage demand (3.4–19.2 TWh) globally and regionally. Either technical V2G or technical second-use alone is sufficient by 2050 in most cases.
• V2G technical potential and limits (2050): About 21%–26% of global theoretical onboard EV capacity is available for V2G after accounting for mobility needs and degradation. Driving demand is the dominant constraint, reducing availability by 57%–63%; average degradation losses are ≈5% (7% India to 4% RoW). PHEVs (~11% of theoretical capacity) are excluded for V2G. Resulting technical V2G capacity is 18–30 TWh.
• V2G participation for 10 TWh demand (2050): Required participation rates are ~38% (STEP-NCX) and ~20% (SD-NCX).
• Second-use availability (2050): Annual retired battery additions for second-use are 2.1–4.8 TWh; cumulative technical second-use capacity is 14.8–31.5 TWh (assuming 10-year second-life). To supply 10 TWh with second-use alone requires a utilisation rate of ~68% (STEP-NCX, 14.8 TWh) or ~32% (SD-LFP, 31.5 TWh).
• Combined real-world capacity (2050): With both levers at 50% (V2G participation and second-use utilisation), actual available capacity reaches 25–48 TWh, far exceeding demand. Variations in participation (23%–96%) and utilisation (10%–100%) can change real-world capacity by −61% to +32%.
• Required rates to meet demand: Without any second-use, V2G participation of only ~12%–43% suffices to meet global demand by 2050; if half of second-use batteries are deployed on-grid, the required V2G participation falls below 10%.
• Timing: Short-term storage demand could be met as early as 2030 in many regions given lower demand assumptions and higher participation/utilisation levels.

The findings indicate that EV batteries, both in vehicles (V2G) and in second-use stationary applications, can provide ample short-duration storage to support grid stability as renewable penetration increases. Even under conservative assumptions, technical capacity substantially exceeds projected short-term storage demand by 2050, and realistic participation/utilisation rates can bridge the gap to actual availability. Policy and market design will be critical: incentives for V2G participation, standards for bidirectional charging and aggregation, and frameworks for efficient collection, repurposing, and deployment of retired packs. Compared to prior projections (e.g., conservative IRENA fleet/battery assumptions), this analysis suggests a larger opportunity due to more comprehensive treatment of degradation, behavior, chemistry, and regional diversity. At regional scales, lower participation rates may still deliver significant benefits, and under favorable conditions global needs could be met by 2030. Overall, leveraging EV batteries can complement other flexibility options, potentially deferring investments in dedicated storage and grid infrastructure while enhancing renewable integration.

This study integrates EV fleet evolution, real-world use, chemistry- and temperature-dependent degradation, and market behavior to estimate the future storage capacity available from EV batteries. It shows that EV batteries could meet global short-term grid storage demand by 2050 across a range of scenarios, and potentially as early as 2030 under favorable conditions. Participation rates of EV owners in V2G and utilisation of second-use batteries are the primary determinants of actual deliverable capacity; modest rates are sufficient in most scenarios. Policymakers should develop incentives, standards, and business models to unlock this potential, including V2G market access, smart charging infrastructure, and robust second-life pathways. Future research should refine estimates of second-life longevity and degradation under varied duty cycles, improve representation of fast charging and thermal management, and explore system-level changes (e.g., shared/autonomous mobility) that could influence available capacity.

Key limitations include: uncertainties in future battery degradation (chemistry advances, pack design, BMS improvements), simplified thermal representation (ambient temperatures proxy pack temperatures), limited open data for NCA leading to NCM-based assumptions, omission of cell-to-pack variability, and potential acceleration of degradation from increased fast charging in extreme climates. The analysis compares capacity to an average 4-hour storage requirement, not capturing sub-hour ancillary service demands. EV rated capacities are held constant; future vehicle design, policy, charging infrastructure, and mobility shifts (e.g., smaller packs, shared/autonomous fleets, battery swapping) could alter available capacity. Second-life duration and degradation in stationary use are uncertain, affecting cumulative second-use potential.