Alarming projections of climate change, decline in crop yields, and increased food demand constitute daunting threats to African food production and sustainable water management. This study maps the water-food nexus by combining gridded climate data and process-based crop modeling to quantify scenarios of crop water footprint under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 for time horizons 2040, 2070, and 2100. High-input agricultural management coupled with irrigation expansion could reduce water use intensity, but significant additional blue water resources will be required to sustain increased yields.

Vittorio Giordano, Marta Tuninetti, Francesco Laio