Global warming poses an unprecedented threat to agroecosystems. Although temperature increases are more pronounced during winter than in other seasons, the impact of winter warming on crop biomass carbon has not been elucidated. Here we integrate global observational data with a decade-long field experiment to uncover a significant negative correlation between winter soil temperature and crop biomass carbon. For every degree Celsius increase in winter soil temperature, straw and grain biomass carbon decreased by 6.6 (±1.7) g kg⁻¹ and 10.2 (±2.3) g kg⁻¹, respectively. This decline is primarily attributed to the loss of soil organic matter and micronutrients induced by warming. Ignoring the adverse effects of winter warming on crop biomass carbon could result in an overestimation of total food production by 4% to 19% under future warming scenarios. Our research highlights the critical need to incorporate winter warming into agricultural productivity models for more effective climate adaptation strategies.

Haowei Ni, Han Hu, Constantin M. Zohner, Weigen Huang, Ji Chen, Yishen Sun, Jixian Ding, Jizhong Zhou, Xiaoyuan Yan, Jiabao Zhang, Yuting Liang, Thomas W. Crowther