Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants

Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative reduction effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction number. We found that, overall, social distancing measures (38% reduction, 95% credible interval 45%), face masks (30%-47.2%) and close contact tracing (28%-34%) were most effective. Contact tracing was crucial in containing outbreaks during the initial phases, while social distancing measures increasingly performed better as the spread persisted. In addition, infections with higher transmissibility and a shorter latent period posed more challenges for these measures. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the effects of public-health measures for zeroing out emerging contagions in different contexts.

Yong Ge, Xilin Wu, Wenbin Zhang, Xiaoli Wang, Dazhi Zhang, ZhiPeng Ren, YanChao Yang, JianHuang Wu, HongYu Liu, Ruibin Wang, Chris R. Williams, Eleanor Currid, Andrew W. Park, David A. T. Cummings, JingZhi Liu, Andrew J. Tatem