Effect of COVID-19 on Economy in India: Some Reflections for Policy and Programme

The outbreak of COVID-19 brought social and economic life to a standstill. In this study the focus is on assessing the impact on affected sectors, such as aviation, tourism, retail, capital markets, MSMEs, and oil. International and internal mobility is restricted, and the revenues generated by travel and tourism, which contributes 9.2% of the GDP, will take a major toll on the GDP growth rate. Aviation revenues will come down by USD 1.56 billion. Oil has plummeted to 18-year low of $22 per barrel in March, and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn huge amounts from India, about USD 571.4 million. While lower oil prices will shrink the current account deficit, reverse capital flows will expand it. Rupee is continuously depreciating. MSMEs will undergo a severe cash crunch. The crisis witnessed a horrifying mass exodus of such floating population of migrants on foot, amidst countrywide lockdown. Their worries primarily were loss of job, daily ration, and absence of a social security net. India must rethink on her development paradigm and make it more inclusive. COVID 19 has also provided some unique opportunities to India. There is an opportunity to participate in global supply chains, multinationals are losing trust in China. To 'Make in India', some reforms are needed, labour reforms being one of them.

Monika Chaudhary, P. R. Sodani, Shankar Das