This study investigates the projected changes in Arctic Ocean eddy activity using a next-generation global sea ice–ocean model with kilometer-scale resolution. The results indicate a significant surge in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the upper Arctic Ocean, tripling on average in a four-degree-warmer world. This surge is primarily driven by enhanced baroclinic instability leading to increased eddy generation. Despite sea ice decline, the annual mean effect of eddy killing (damping of eddies by sea ice and winds) remains relatively unchanged in the warming scenario. The findings highlight the crucial role of accurately representing Arctic eddy activity in climate models to better understand the impacts of its increase on climate and ecosystems.

Xinyue Li, Qiang Wang, Sergey Danilov, Nikolay Koldunov, Caili Liu, Vasco Müller, Dmitry Sidorenko, Thomas Jung