Existing studies often use domestic or scenario-based recycling rates for imported plastic waste, which is problematic due to differences in recyclability and the fact that importers pay for it. This study estimates the minimum required recycling rate (RRR) needed to break even financially by analyzing import prices, recycling costs, and the value of recycled plastics across 22 leading importing countries and four plastic waste types during 2013–2022. The results show that at least 63% of imported plastic waste must be recycled, significantly higher than the average domestic recycling rate of 23%. This discrepancy suggests that recycled plastics volumes from the global North-to-South trade may be underestimated. The country-specific RRR provided could enhance research and policy efforts to better quantify and mitigate the environmental impact of plastic waste trade.

Kai Li, Hauke Ward, Hai Xiang Lin, Arnold Tukker