Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skillful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate harm from regulations and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skillful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

Stephanie Brodie, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Heather Welch, Steven J. Bograd, Elliott L. Hazen, Jarrod A. Santora, Rachel Seary, Isaac D. Schroeder, Michael G. Jacox