Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats. This study uses yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure and opportunity for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions, while exposure increases later and more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Strong emissions reductions significantly reduce exposure but have a smaller effect on opportunities. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century. Most opportunities are projected to persist until 2100, indicating they could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. The study provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts.

Andreas Schwarz Meyer, Alex L. Pigot, Cory Merow, Kristin Kaschner, Cristina Garilao, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes, Christopher H. Trisos